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BlueMoonCapital's avatar

Thank you for the clear thesis! This does seem like a huge opportunity with a very strong management.

I'm still trying to figure out valuation and growth prospects.

How is "take rate" defined? Is it Gross profit / TPV?

If so, it seems that it has been steadily declining:

2021: 2.73% ($202m / $7.4b)

2022: 1.91% ($202m / $10.6b)

2023: 1.56% ($277m / $17.7b)

2024: 1.15% ($295m / $25.6b)

2025 Q1: 1.05% ($85m / $8.1b)

Are these figures correct?

If no, what are the correct definitions/figures?

If yes, why do you expect them to reach a 2.75% take rate in 2030, as it seems competition is intensifying? (and guidance for 2025 suggests further contraction of take rate, as guidance for TPV growth is higher than gross profit at 35%-45% and 20%-25% respectively)

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Weary Centurion's avatar

Great article mate. I wish I had pulled the trigger before earnings, however, the earnings report did solidify my conviction so I guess I should be grateful still that I can get in now.

The dividend decision, after reacting the same as you initially, is actually ridiculously bullish long term. The best thing about it? We get paid out regularly for holding a stock that is growing fast with minimal capex. It was the last thing that spurred me to start a position despite it running from $8 to $12 in a short amount of time. I love their thinking outside the box approach

As always, I am immensely grateful to have found multiple stocks to put in my long term portfolio, largely in part due to your research…great work as always

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